Wen’t 2-2 in week 5 I realized I never tallied up week 4s results (1-4) (I guess I was trying to forget) . Tough losses last week. How do the pats not score a little bit more than that, and I still say the Bills win that game if Manuel stays healthy. But the browns starter got hurt too, so tough to complain. Anyone so for the past 2 weeks I was 3-6 (ouch) Bringing me to an overall 17-13. Teaser would have left you totally even if you bet every combo. Someone double check that for me, actually no wait as I’m typing that I realize now my math was wrong. You would have won on 11 out of 22 combos. But since that was for 3 team teaser were getting paid more than 1 to 1! How bout that! That’s profit baby! 3 team teaser for +6 points pays +165 on my site. so thats 65 percent of whatever you bet per tease times 11 just doing some quick rough math. Ok! On to the picks!
Packers -2.5 over baltimore: I actually dont think the packers are anywhere near there superbowl level. But I don’t think the ravens are any good either. Rodgers needs another big day.
NYJ PK over Steelers : Crazy to me that the jets arent favored here, at home, and they have a very very good defense.
New Orleans +1 over NE : boggles my mind that NE is favored, NE has been shaky at best much worse than there record. New Orleans has been the 2nd best team in the league this far. I bet a lot on this when it open at either 2 or 2.5 and bought it up to saints +3. ALso teased it a few times and have a few NO +9.5 teases goin. Would be lock of the week if I still did that nonsense.
Colts PK over San Diego: this is another boggler, colts have looked great all year chargers have seemed average at best, rivers has played well, name 5 good players on the team. You can’t do it. Colts win this easy imo.
Raiders + 16 : chiefs games always close, I like this raiders team anyway
Hey there sports fans! Took last week off partially because of the brutal week 4 I had and partially due to there not being really any spreads I liked. I looked hard and had maybe one or 2 that I was going to pick but just figured if thats all I got why even bother. Also I plan on changing the format for how I am going to do teasers. I am going to give a pool of teams and then recommend dividing up whatever you would bet on the 2 or 3 team teaser by all the possible combos you could bet from the pool. It will require a little math on my part but I look forward to it should be fun. ANd then we’ll see what you’re roi would have been if you would have bet all the combos.
I’ll do it a little example right now, let say there are four teams I like for the tease this week. Cinci, NYG, NYJ, and Dallas and we’ll do a 3 team tease for this example. And you want to bet lets say $1000 on a 3 team tease. Then we figure out all the combos of 3 teams.
1. Cinci, jets, giants
2. Cinci Jets Dallas
3. Cinci Dallas giants
4.Dallas Jets Giants
I think thats it. So you instead of betting the thousand on the one you would bet 250 on each of the four. The reason I am switching to this format is because I have been losing on all the teasers I have been posting because of my 2 team tease teams is always not covering so all of my teases from there on end up losing even though it seems like 75+% of the tease teams I like end up coming through. So this will help smooth out the variance. Anyway! On to the picks! I like the underdogs this week!
Buffalo +4.5 over cleveland: Bills just beat the SB champ ravens. I like them vs the lowly browns on thursday.
NE +1.5 over cinci: Pats are rounding into form!
New Orleans +1 over Chicago: New orleans Def has impressed me this year, I think they beat the fins tonight and keep rolling vs bears.
Arizona +2 over Carolina: They have a very good defense and the panthers offense has struggled mightily outside of the NYG I like arizona to win this one.
Teaser teams: Arizona +8, Buff +10.5, Balt +9, NE +7.5, New Orleans +7, Denver -1.
As always bet the teams in bold! Good luck to you and to me!
Green Bay -3 over Cincinnati: Green bay just has too much offensive firepower, Rodgers hit his stride last week, rest of the league better be on notice. Green bay wins this by a touchdown.
Atlanta +3 over Miami : Dolphins are as overrated right now as they will be all year. They have beat the browns and the colts to be 2-0. I’m not impressed. Atlanta has proven to be a good team over the course of years not 2 games. Atlanta wins this game outright. Dolphins finish seasons at 8-8 or worse. But if they win this one maybe look out for them.
Buffalo +2.5 over NYJ : Jets got offense got picked apart by a bad patriots defense. The Bills defense has surprised me this year. I think another big game for mario williams is in store and I think EJ Manuel could have the best game of his young career here. I Like the bills to win this outright. I think Geno smith is a very bad QB and thats that.
Chicago -2 over Steelers: The steelers are bad like real bad. Chicago’s offense has been revitalized by that new offense line, cutler looks decent, Bennett has been huge for them, everything is lined up for this pick to blow up in my face, but I still think Chi wins by a TD.
Lock of the week:
NYG -1 over Carolina : Carolina is a bad football team. The giants start slow every year but not 0-3 slow. They’ll get the win here. Carolina secondary is decimated and the giants will throw throw throw to that top tier receiving core. I don’t think this one is particularly close, G-men win it.
Teasers: Ok lets give the whole teaser thing another shot I guess you don’t need to hit on as many of these because your always getting good odds. But my start to them last week was certainly unpleasent haha. Here we go.
NYG +5 and Atlanta +9
Add Buffalo +8.5
Add Detroit +6
A few other interesting tease options: New England -1, Rams + 9.5, oh new orleans -1.5 I like a lot actually, Minn -.5. just a few other options for your consideration.
3-2 this week including missing on the lock of the week (dammit) Saints should have covered they screwed that up big time. Not sure how I feel about these teasers I’ll keep tryin em for a few more weeks at least though. Although I missed on both my teasers this week. Of the 6 teams I liked this week ( in straight spread and teaser format) 5 out of the 6 covered with the additional plus 6, I may change the format of how I “pick” my teasers and just give a list of teams to pick 2,3, or 4 from depending on what you want to bet. Anyway! That brings 15-7 overall and 2-2 in my locks of the week. I already know my picks for next week and I’ll have them in writing in the next day or two. I believe there were 5 spreads I liked.
Gonna start doing a little weekly teaser section featuring 1-3 teasers each featuring a different number of teams. (I will always do it with +6 points)
This weeks 2 team teaser:
New Orleans +3
San Fran +9
New Orleans +3
San Fran +9
Good Luck! First time trying the teasers!
Edit: After posting this I saw Henne will be starting for the Jags this week, really like Jags +12 in this format another good team to consider if one my current teams makes you nervous, or perhaps even make a 4 team teaser, they may even make it to my normal week 2 picks with just the +6 with this in mind.
While I’ve made my reviews of the spreads, as always bet the guys in bold and here are my picks,:
Bills +3 over Carolina: The bills are at home and nearly beat the patriots last weak, this bills team is better than people think! The panthers have struggled early in the season the past few years and it looks like this year is no exception juding from what we saw in week 1. I like the Bills to win this game outright.
Gren Bay -7 over Washington: The Packers lost week 1 in a shootout they aren’t going to start the year 0-2 and they will pour the points on this struggling redskins defense. RG3 looked relatively ineffective in week 1, I don’t see how the redskins will be able to keep up. Green Bay wins this one in a big way. Blowout.
New Orleands -3 over Tampa Bay: New Orleans coming off a big win vs the falcons, Tampa bay has no momentum they just threw away a week 1 victory, and I got news for the bucs defense. This isn’t Geno smith and the jets, this is Drew brees and Sean Peyton, look out. This one could be another blowout. Don’t see freeman keeping up with brees.
Denver -5 over NYG: I think the Broncos and 9ers are by far the 2 best teams in the NFL. Manning is going to come out vs his younger brother and show them that week 1 was no fluke. The Giants running game is a total mess. I think Denver covers the spread here,
Lock of the week:
San Fran +3 over Seattle: As I just got done saying I believer the niners and Broncos are by far the best 2 teams in the league, and your going to GIVE them points?? I know Seattle is a “different team” at home but come on. I think everyone who watched all the games last week will tell you the niners are the real deal. Seattle barely managed to score 12 points against the panthers last week. This is the 49ers, who just beat a real team (the packers) by 6. This is a LOCK.
So lets see how I did after a long layoff! 4-1 including a correct pick in my lock of the week not so bad if I do say so myself! Including in my one loss I lost by a half a point! (damn!) This Brings my career record to 12-5 overall and 2-1 in my locks of the week! Next weeks picks will be up in the next couple of days!